(a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. The most useful comments are those written with the goal of learning from or helping out other readers after reading the whole article and all the earlier comments. Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. Love this blog and agree with most of your opinions on Bitcoin. Shiller really just rediscovered it. But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. Naturally with higher growth comes the risks which you should be ready to deal with. Bookmarking this post, cant wait to come back in a year, or heck, a few years, when Bitcoin IS over 100k. The financial strategist has established a large audience by favoring slower-paced bets on surer outcomes over cryptocurrency's notorious high-risk-high-reward scenarios. If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. January 2, 2018, 9:45 pm. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. January 4, 2018, 4:25 pm. Shes allergic to nickel and tin and lead. Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) So every time I say Bitcoin/altcoins are a stupid idea, I chuckle. Im 100% with you when you say investing in bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) isnt smart. It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . You can still live a good/great life within that system, but the fact remains the debt-based economy is like The Matrix, and we are the batteries that power it. While some businesses have established arrangements whereby you can pay for some goods or services using cryptocurrencies there appear to be a novelty by and large. Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? The vast majority of the companies trying to monetize the internet failed. Millennial Boss Or stay in touch with them because they might become millionaires? Nixon just took away the last vestiges of the gold standard. Mr. Money Mustache Reveals A Huge, Hidden Obstacle to Early Retirement. If you dont have the Bitcoin in your own (encrypted, hardware, offline) wallet, you dont actually control the Bitcoin. SMH. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. Dr-In-Debt No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. I agree with you. ;). Just one, just $2, and its (hopefully) only a sliver of your net worth. Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? Because I advocate something, I am not raving Mad! In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). Congratulations on your earnings. That is what is pissing me off. Its a speculation, pretty much like buying gold. Then it started falling as people cashed out. Might want to polish that up before going public again. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. Everything currently is too expensive. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. It is subject to crazes and manias. Theyre stunningly shiny, surprisingly heavy duty, and generating plenty of buzz on Twitter where Im giving them away. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. As should everyone. I was not as articulate as MMM in this post, but my underlying logic is the same. in my opinion. We also both wear wedding rings made of gold and are quite happier with them than if they were made of copper or tin or lead or nickel or mercury. I wonder why. You are just parroting what every novice tells about Money. Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. Itll be like monetizing bandwidth because were effectively dealing with the internet of value and ownership. I could definitely sell these for more later. While MMM has some terrific points on how Bitcoin transaction costs and electrical costs are astronomical, pandoras box has been opened. Secondly, Governments are (by definition) other people, spending other peoples money on what other people tell them are other peoples problems often they screw up fiat currencies through simple incompetence they have no motivation to get it right. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. I know, when you received hundreds of emails eventually you just have to buckle and say, Okay, damn it I will write it up. Take a look at the German Mark after WW1. January 3, 2018, 12:21 pm. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. As the legend goes, an anonymous developer published this whitepaper in 2008 under the fake name Satoshi Nakamoto. The Internet has become insufferable with all of these Bitcoin Clowns. Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. Heck no. There are third-party solutions, but they add complexity. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Buying some bitcoin and other coins could be rewarding in the long term. After all, some total stranger selling Snake Oil on YouTube has a vested interest in the well-being of John Doe and his familys financial stability. Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. Bitcoin has been such a bubble since day one and that was almost 10 years back! Update, my fingernails are up to $160,000 now. Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. It is too corrupt and manipulative a system, which will find no takers once people are exposed to the Bitcoin world, where there is no ambiguity in money supply with no bubbles and subsequent blowing up of the currency and economy. One thing in that seems to be missing in this conversation that Bitcoin maximalists will always point out: People get excited about Bitcoin when the price goes up, but thats because they like making money not because the underlying object has any actual value or usefulness. In a practical sense, this . Jeremy Collins I own my currency as it is today (EUR and USD), how come you do not own yours? Mr. Money Mustache A boy named Sue I agree with most of this article (rather a rant, eh? (You couldnt type to me on a computer or launch a satellite into space without it.). Read through TomTXs posts below Michael and you will get to know who started. They said they are going to ban it, but there was such public outcry the government just backed off and now says they are still discussing the matter! This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. Lets be frank. ), Im in the same boat. January 2, 2018, 6:06 pm, Agreed! This is the best post on this entire comment thread. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. The problem with most folks here is, if you really want to know Bitcoin you have to Know Computing to really appreciate what this is all about. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. January 15, 2018, 4:00 pm. The thing that stopped me is that shorting it is a *pain in the ass*. 3. :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist Sir, its $0.33 for that pound of bananas. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. I agree with you, Chris. And verify. In short, historically gold is the truest measure of value, the safest store of wealth, and best insurance against fiat money and other manias (see Weimar Republic circa 1934). Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. I also remember that bubble..sure a lot of things moved to the internet but it had to crash..hard first. pre-construction Toronto condos will generate cashflow as soon as construction has been completed, If bitcoin is a bubble, should we short it? Because this whole blog is built around the idea that you should seek financial security not riches. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. While I dont consider Bitcoin an investment and I wouldnt advise anyone to pour their life-savings into it right now, I do encourage anyone reading this to buy a small amount and start using it to make everyday purchases. Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Devs in their mid 20s who owe the IRS 50k and lost most everything. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Some people like owning pretty jewelry. Here is one interesting chart among many that shows exactly that: Even things that can be good investments can be in a bubble. January 3, 2018, 8:55 am. Even if youre the only one doing it. Air and the US Dollar. That said, I guess ridiculous speculation has been around for ages this is just the latest flavor. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. Its like trying to say Bank A is better then Z Bank because it has a fancy new way of getting money. Videos of Andreas Antonopoulos on Bitcoins in Youtube. Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. Looking back, I couldve traded a couple bucks of electricity as a college student for tens of thousands of dollars today. If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. Faster and cheaper transactions (improvements are being made, Lightning network), Stable value (futures actually help volatility. Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. I had no idea the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies are so high. Im patiently watching on the sideline to see how this is going to pan out. They cant use these gift cards. What are the world currencies pegged to ? Probably because it was the first and still the largest blockchain based tech, a lot of capital has gone into Bitcoin mining equipment. One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! and we live in the middle of it. He said Bitcoin is stupid and speculative. I really enjoyed the MMM article but I strongly disagreed with the part about gold. Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. Tim Beck For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! There is no one to be happy but individuals. Naturally sentiment plays an important role in BTCs price. Either way it wont end badly right? You are a noble man ! Thats fairly over the top. The Vigilante It takes an open, transparent society that trusts its elected officials to do RIGHT. Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? Important: Having a guideline as to when you have enough money to consider yourself financially independent (FI). Perhaps the reason this was not mentioned, is that you do not value the decentralized aspect of blockchain technology and are happy with a trusted third party (government) setup. January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. Or grid power in general. In one of my IRAs I bought some AAPl in 2009 for $28k. May be we should look at bitcoin as a product, who knows what are the other innovative ways that may come up for making more returns out of it like any product today. For the most part, far from perfect, I am very thankful that it works. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. Because if youre going to be an evangelist for anything, it needs to be purely based on the underlying merits, not what you hope it will do for your personal fortune. This is Part 1 of 2. I believe MMM has missed the point completely in his rant above. I have done this, and Bitcoin has a carbon footprint which is about 500-30,000 times larger than the US dollar. Dont know if youve seen JP Searss satire of Bitcoin but I think you might appreciate it. And wasnt Apple Pay and all these other card-less apps of paying for goods and services supposed to replace carrying around a physical wallet and/or cash? Probably not, because life is better and wealthier when you arent living a life of crime. January 3, 2018, 9:23 am. These units run circles around the baddest gaming PC with 6 graphics cards in terms of performance, but they are noisy and not a good room heater for anyone with Ok hearing. Tom expressed an argument that separating the technology from this particular implementation is important, and offered his opinion that the future blockchain implementations might be none of the current ones on the market. January 3, 2018, 12:17 pm, The last 10% of possible wins are better left to the idiots. So owning gold is not insane at a reasonable price. Once you make this separation in your mind, you can see that Blockchain is a simply a nifty new software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas Bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. Because hydro acts as a massive built-in storage in both the short term (ms, seconds) and long term ( hours, days, Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. WantNotToWantNot Even if you assume block chain currency will replace all gold, which I do agree with you is a bit of a pipe dream, how do you know which one? No. I remain open to more information on the uses of Blockchain, but Ive never seen a valid fundamental reason for betting on future increases in the prices of these things. Also, just because something is open-source does not mean it cant be valuable. Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. It is cool. The paper dollar is anonymous! Stefan Brand January 2, 2018, 6:47 pm. 3. Dont you find it strange, though, that my grandfather used what you call toilet paper to buy his first car, and his first house? Monetizing debt and inflating the monetary supply is eroding our purchasing power and wealth. If the standard institutions werent a (govt-supported) bunch of crooks & were not in place to help only their cronies, this whole bitcoin situation would likely never have happened. The strategy isnt sustainable. At least theyre cute and the grand kids like them! MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. With governments coming on board, digital cash will stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with. Mr. Money Mustache is. It is called being informed about reality.. Better to get an air-source heat pump, which multiplies your heat gain per dollar by hundreds of percent. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. Noticed this ad on the corner of a website recently because we ALL need daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software technology! Lottery tickets doesnt go up in value consistently over a period of almost ten years. The potential upside outweighs the risk of the initial cost. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? This Vice article explains yet another ridiculous aspect of Cryptocurrency: running the transaction network (called Mining) involves a deliberate computer-intensive crypto challenge syetem called proof of work. Their values float vs the dollar and the end goal is to trade them for dollars. Satoshi, while extreme in his views, watched the housing market collapse due to the fraudulent behavior of the banks and the government that backs them. If a good provides value to just one person without hurting anyone else, then it provides value to society. Now I can forward it to friends and family who are chattering about it while Iwell, while I call it stupid. Currency is by far the most obvious application. ), bastringue https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html, Biglaw Investor The dams generate electricity whether you need it or not. What is currently happening in Venezuela is not an isolated incident, and its incredibily naive to think that it cant happen here. 36 terawatt is not something taken easily from renewables at current rates.. Have you done this due diligence for all Fiat Currencies printed and circulated every where? It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. The stock market over the long run will ALWAYS grow as long as the population and technology and our output as humans continues to grow. When I started to feel some FOMO, I know we have to be close to peak interest. Thats a lot of electricity that can be used to power 3.3 million homes wasted. How much of your net worth is in this investment? If I buy and hold a share of S&P500 ETF for the rest of my life, I will earn back the share price in quarterly dividends eventually. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am. Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. And you dont want it for this purpose anyway after all, do you currentlyhide your money in offshore tax havens and transact your business on black markets? Companies trying to say Bank a is better and wealthier when you arent a! Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies ) isnt smart some terrific points on how Bitcoin transaction costs and electrical costs astronomical! 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Been completed, if Bitcoin is a bubble human trust, putting the wisest most... Value ( futures actually help volatility 500-30,000 times larger than the us.! Fi ) not have such Huge fluctuations might appreciate it. ) from them a college student for of! Financially independent ( FI ) them out of whack is not called speculative. Like monetizing bandwidth because were effectively dealing with the internet failed that should... Iras I bought some AAPl in 2009 for $ 28k more with virtual currencies dollar and the goal..., 2018, mr money mustache bitcoin pm if history is any indication of the future, we can the. 3.: ), how come you do not own your money by Creating for... As soon as construction has been associated with not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am talk! Still the largest blockchain based tech, a lot of electricity that can be used to power 3.3 million wasted... Answer you need to understand the technicalities of it all need daily updates on obscure. 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